ID: 1499
Presenting Author: Ara Kim
Session: 572 - Fit For Future and Act at Present: Impact Assessment for Leveraging Challenges and Opportunities from Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Status: pending
This study quantifies the effectiveness of forest management as a wildfire adaptation measure, providing evidence-based insights for policy decisions and advancing impact assessment method,
Wildfires have emerged as one of the most destructive climate-related hazards worldwide, causing severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. In Korea, the frequency and intensity of large-scale wildfires have increased in recent decades, raising concerns about the adequacy of current adaptation policies. Despite extensive policy efforts, there remains a lack of quantitative evidence regarding the effectiveness of adaptation measures in reducing wildfire damages.
This study develops and applies a statistical impact assessment framework to evaluate the effectiveness of forest management as a climate change adaptation measure. Using historical wildfire records, meteorological data, and fuel load information at the municipal level, we constructed wildfire damage functions that link hazard intensity with observed burned area. Forest-tending activities, which reduce available fuel load, were modeled as an adaptation intervention, and the resulting changes in predicted wildfire damages were quantified.
The results demonstrate that applying forest-tending measures significantly reduces potential wildfire damages, particularly in high-risk municipalities. The quantitative estimates provide evidence that adaptation not only reduces burned area but also mitigates cascading socio-economic losses. By integrating hazard, exposure, and adaptation data into a coherent modeling framework, this research advances the methodological basis for climate change impact assessment.
This approach can inform policy decisions by quantifying the real-world effectiveness of adaptation measures.
Ara Kim is a researcher at the Korea Environment Institute, specializing in climate change adaptation, impact assessment, and quantitative evaluation of policy effectiveness.
Coauthor 1: Y.I. Song
Coauthor 2: Jin Han Park
Coauthor 3: Chang Sub Shim
Coauthor 4: Eun.B. Lee