ID: 1520
Presenting Author: Chloe Dawson
Session: 603 - Using global biodiversity data to make past assessments and future projections
Status: pending
Using global biodiversity and mining datasets, we project future habitat loss under nickel sourcing scenarios, demonstrating how strategic spatial decisions can minimise impacts on threatened species.
Global nickel demand is projected to increase substantially through 2050, driven by the transition to low-carbon technologies. However, nickel mining poses significant threats to biodiversity, especially for range-restricted species in biodiverse regions where many unexploited nickel deposits are located. This study quantifies potential habitat loss from terrestrial nickel mining under potential future sourcing scenarios. We analysed 487 nickel mining properties from the S&P Global database (94 current operations and 393 exploration sites) against Area of Habitat maps for range-restricted mammal, amphibian, and reptile species. Using Monte Carlo simulations with deposit-type specific land transformation factors, we projected mining footprints through 2050 under uncertainty in both mine location and size. We compared two supply scenarios using the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model: (1) minimising extraction from low-grade deposits, and (2) prioritising mines with the greatest contained nickel reserves. Our analysis reveals substantial variation in biodiversity impacts depending on which mining properties are developed, with some regions exhibiting disproportionately high species richness. The findings demonstrate that spatial sourcing decisions significantly influence habitat loss for threatened species, providing critical insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders seeking to balance mineral supply security with biodiversity conservation in the energy transition.
Chloe is a PhD candidate at The University of Queensland working on understanding where to source energy transition metals for climate change mitigation with reduced impacts on biodiversity.