ID: 1854
Presenting Author: Insung Song
Session: 642 - Enhancing the credibility and impact of climate change and health impact assessments
Status: pending
Climate change will raise temperature-related mortality in South Korea, especially from heat.
Effective adaptation can reduce extreme heat deaths, emphasizing urgent public health action.
As climate change advances, temperature-related health burdens are expected to rise.
This study projects future temperature-related mortality in South Korea under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), accounting for changes in climate and population.
A district- and age-specific temperature–mortality model was developed using historical data.
Mortality from non-optimal temperatures and extreme events was estimated.
Extreme temperatures were defined using relative thresholds (below 2.5th or above 97.5th percentile) and absolute thresholds (minimum below −13°C or maximum apparent temperature above 33°C for two consecutive days).
The effects of varying levels of heat adaptation were also assessed.
Results show that mortality from non-optimal cold generally rises until mid-century, while non-optimal heat mortality increases steadily.
Extreme heat mortality rises sharply under high-emission scenarios, whereas extreme cold mortality declines faster than non-optimal cold, reaching near zero in late-century under SSP5-8.5.
Mortality based on absolute thresholds is smaller than that based on relative thresholds, reflecting methodological differences.
Even with strong adaptation, non-optimal temperature mortality is projected to increase, while extreme temperature mortality may drop below baseline when at least 60% of heat risk is mitigated under high-emission pathways.
These findings highlight the growing threat of extreme heat and the critical need for effective adaptation strategies to reduce future temperature-attributable mortality.
Insung Song is a ph.D candidate in the graduate school of public health, Seoul National University.
His research focuses on climate change and health impact assessment.
Coauthor 1: Ejin Kim
Coauthor 2: Ho Kim
Coauthor 3: Soonho Choi