ID: 1993
Presenting Author: Leah BECHE
Session: 524 - Power and Perception: Misinformation, Disinformation, and the Environmental and Social Narrative in Hydropower Development
Status: pending
Adaptive management is key to manage uncertainty in impact assessment and mitigation. Unlocking its potential and avoiding pitfalls are discussed in the context of hydropower development
Impact assessment is not an exact science, despite scientific and intellectual rigor that is applied at all stages (baseline, impact evaluation, development of mitigation). Uncertainty in impact assessment, whether due to lack of knowledge (on socio-ecosystems for example), or resulting from uncertainties in impact prediction: likelihood of occurrence, magnitude or temporality, or caused by uncertainties in climate change effects and/or cumulative effects, can be difficult to communicate and manage for project developers. While an (overly) precautionary approach would lead to adopting the most impacting scenario that is reasonably likely in impact assessment, this posture can lead to overestimation of impacts, apprehension from stakeholders and can in some cases be project “killers” resulting from low project acceptability and very high mitigation costs (that in many cases may never be leveraged). Alternatively, adaptive management frameworks can be used to navigate uncertainty in impact assessment outcomes, and yet this framework can be perceived by some as a “cop-out” or an attempt by developers to minimize or hide impacts. In this presentation, a general framework for integrating adaptive management into impact assessment in a transparent manner is presented. This framework is illustrated from various case studies in hydropower development projects, covering topics with inherently high uncertainty, ranging from integrating climate change effects into project ESIA, biodiversity residual impact assessment in knowledge-poor and highly dynamic ecosystems, and environmental
Leah Bêche is an expert in aquatic biodiversity with extensive experience in the environmental management of hydropower schemes and in assessing development projects around the world.
Coauthor 1: Armeline DIMIER