ID: 2037
Presenting Author: Xingcheng Lu
Session: 572 - Fit For Future and Act at Present: Impact Assessment for Leveraging Challenges and Opportunities from Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Status: pending
High-resolution projections of global surface O₃ (2010–2100)
reveal emission- and meteorology-driven disparities,
emphasizing the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation
strategies.
Ozone (O₃) poses significant threats to human health and
the environment. However, current Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets lack high-resolution global records
of historical surface O₃ and future projections of maximum daily 8-hour
average ozone (MDA8 O₃) concentrations, with coarse spatial resolutions
(50-250 km).
To address these gaps, we developed a high-resolution
global monthly surface O₃ dataset (2010-2019) using a
deep residual neural network (ResNet) model at a
0.1° × 0.1° spatial scale. The model integrates satellite
observations, meteorological reanalysis, anthropogenic
emission inventories, and auxiliary predictors to reconstruct
detailed O₃ distributions. Building on this, we generated a
global, spatially explicit MDA8 O₃ dataset (2021-2100)
using deep learning with reanalysis data, emission
inventories, and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections
under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
Preliminary results suggest global MDA8 O₃ concentrations
may decline under low-emission scenarios but increase in
high-emission scenarios due to complex O₃ formation
chemistry. Despite reductions in NOx, CO, and VOC
emissions, ozone pollution persists or worsens in some
regions. Inequality in O₃ exposure is projected to grow,
with low-income countries facing higher risks. Health
burden analyses indicate rising premature mortality under
most scenarios, highlighting the urgent need for mitigation
and adaptation strategies to address O₃ pollution in a
changing climate.
Xingcheng Lu is an Assistant Professor in the
Department of Geography and Resource Management
at CUHK. His research interests include air pollution
and its health impact analysis.
Coauthor 1: Yuxiao Jiang