ID: 2213
Presenting Author: Ashley Turner
Session: 552 - Accelerating with Integrity: Strengthening Social Impact Assessment in the face of urgency and misinformation
Status: pending
This paper assesses the accuracy of economic impact estimates in environmental assessments by examining projects with pre-construction forecasts and post-construction socio-economic monitoring data.
Economic impact assessment is a fundamental component of the assessment of socio-economic impacts of projects. In Canada, the most common method for estimating economic impacts is input-output modelling, which assesses how project spending can contribute to local/regional, provincial/territorial and national economies, measured through employment creation, employment income, GDP contribution, and government revenue. Project proponents often highlight potential economic impacts as key benefits of proposed developments, which can play an important role in building support for a project among local communities, business organizations, and government agencies. But how accurate are such estimates, and to what extent do estimated impacts align with reality? This paper examines the accuracy of economic impacts in environmental impact assessment by examining projects where both pre-construction estimates of economic impacts, and socio-economic monitoring data on such impacts are available. The paper identifies factors that may influence the accuracy of estimates and recommends best practices to enhance the reliability of economic impact predictions.
Ashley is a socio-economic impact assessment practitioner with Stantec based in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Coauthor 1: Vilma Gayoso-Haro