ID: 2250
Presenting Author: Zhongming Lu
Session: 572 - Fit For Future and Act at Present: Impact Assessment for Leveraging Challenges and Opportunities from Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Status: pending
Flexibility and grid connection with emission caps are compared to identify optimal strategies to lower green ammonia costs and emissions.
Ammonia is vital for fertilizer and industry, but conventional production is carbon-intensive due to fossil-based hydrogen. “Green ammonia,” produced using renewable electrolytic hydrogen, offers lower emissions and resilience to fossil fuel volatility but at higher cost. To reduce infrastructure overbuilding and expense, two main strategies are proposed: (1) grid connection under emission caps and (2) increased operational flexibility. Their relative benefits remain uncertain and location-specific. We evaluate these approaches across diverse EU weather patterns using levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA) and life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Grid-connected plants reduce LCOA more—by 42% (avg. 1,569 EUR/t NH₃; range: 999–2,772)—and cut emissions by 25% (0.66 t CO₂e/t; range: 0.39–1.15), but are more sensitive to emission cap policies. Off-grid flexible plants reduce costs by 38% (avg. 1,593 EUR/t; range: 1,168–2,573) and emissions by 45% (0.49 t CO₂e/t; range: 0.31–0.94) versus a non-flexible off-grid baseline. Emission benefits are strongest in areas with limited renewable resources, though these regions may struggle with competitiveness, suggesting relocation may be beneficial. Combining grid connection and flexibility adds limited further gains, except in wind-rich areas. These results guide cost- and emission-effective strategies for green ammonia deployment and decarbonization.
Zhongming Lu, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo
Coauthor 1: Stefano Mingolla