ID: 42
Presenting Author: Jinsol Hong
Status: pending
We developed an invasion risk framework that integrates socioeconomic and environmental data to assess the global invasion risk of pest species.
Biological invasion risk, as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), combines the probability of pest entry, establishment, and spread with the magnitude of potential impacts. Building on this concept, we constructed a composite national-scale risk index using robust normalization and entropy-based objective weights. The striped rice stem borer (RSB, Chilo suppressalis) was chosen as a case study to evaluate global invasion potential under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our framework integrated multiple data sources, including trade volume, transportation networks, cropland and irrigation extent, rice harvest area, and the Ecoclimate Index (EI) from CLIMEX, to estimate likelihood and magnitude criteria. The overall invasion risk (Risk) was defined as their product. Results indicated extensive suitable areas (EI > 0) in Africa (60.7%), South America (85.6%), and North America (36.1%). Current risk was highest in South America (0.21), followed by Africa (0.18), North America (0.17), and Europe (0.08). Projections under SSPs revealed increasing risks in South America across all scenarios, while Europe showed marked growth under SSP585. In contrast, risk declined in North America, and Africa exhibited a modest mid-century rise before decreasing. These findings demonstrate that RSB poses a significant global food security threat and highlight the necessity of proactive, region-specific biosecurity strategies.
Jinsol Hong is a research professor at Ojeong Resilience Institute, Korea University in Korea. His research interests include Ecology, Agriculture, Pest risk, Biogeography, and Climate change science.
Coauthor 1: Kijong Cho