ID: 43
Presenting Author: Minju Ku
Status: pending
Stand age dominated predictions of management carbon effects. Middle-aged stands shifted from losses to gains over 60-80 years, indicating rotations should extend to capture late-century benefits.
Forest management is promoted as a climate adaptation strategy, yet factors determining its long-term effectiveness remain unclear. This study evaluates which initial stand attributes predict forest management effects on carbon uptake across mid-century (2041–2060) and late-century (2081–2100) in Korean forests under SSP5-8.5. Using the process-based FBDC model, carbon uptake from 2020 to 2100 was simulated under two scenarios: unmanaged baseline and managed scenario aligned with national targets (annual thinning 165,000 ha and harvesting 35,000 ha). Management effects were defined as the difference in mean annual carbon uptake between scenarios. A machine-learning model (XGBoost, R² = 0.31–0.33) then identified predictive stand attributes (stand age and forest type). Overall management effects shifted from mid-century decrease of 0.35 MgC/ha/yr to late-century increase of 0.07 MgC/ha/yr, indicating that a 60–80-year recovery period is needed. Stand age dominated predictions (56% feature importance), whereas forest type contributed modestly (5-10%). Middle-aged stands (40-60 years) showed the strongest shift: mid-century decrease of 0.61 MgC/ha/yr reversed to late-century increase of 0.22 MgC/ha/yr, suggesting benefits emerge only after extended recovery. Mixed forests showed the slowest recovery but reached positive outcomes by late-century. Given Korea’s rotation ages (25-60 years by species), evaluations at current harvest ages underestimate long-term benefits. Extending rotations to at least 60 years for middle-aged stands would better capture late-century carbon gains.
Master’s student in environmental science at Korea University, conducting research on climate change and forest carbon cycling, with a focus on forest climate adaptation measures.
Coauthor 1: Yowhan Son